Next Super El Niño

When the possibility of a Super El Niño is discussed, most debates actually start from the wrong place. The issue is not simply whether a strong El Niño will occur. The real issue is the conditions under which this event will now take place. Because the climate system we are in today is no longer the same system in which past El Niño events occurred.

The most important recent development in the Pacific Ocean is the significant accumulation of heat in the upper few hundred meters below the surface. Such heat buildup is usually a precursor to El Niño. Under normal conditions, warm water that accumulates in the western Pacific moves eastward when the wind patterns allow it, and when it reaches the coasts of South America, it interacts with the atmosphere and raises global temperatures. What we are observing today suggests that this process has already begun.

However, the critical question is this: will this be a typical El Niño, or will it develop into a much stronger event—a so-called “Super” El Niño? Current model results do not provide a clear consensus. Some models suggest that sufficient energy has already accumulated in the system and that a strong peak could occur around 2027, while others argue that the necessary conditions for such a powerful event have not yet fully developed. Still, there is one crucial point that should not be overlooked: the system is now accumulating energy much faster than in the past.

The main reason for this is global warming. Ocean surface temperatures are rising rapidly, and the atmosphere is holding more water vapor. Together, these processes amplify the impacts of El Niño. In other words, it is no longer possible to evaluate El Niño on its own. It has effectively become an event that operates on top of an accelerating global warming trend.

In the past, strong El Niño events—such as those in 1997–98 and 2015–16—coincided with record-breaking global temperatures. But today the situation is more dangerous. This time, El Niño is developing on top of an already unusually warm system. This significantly increases the likelihood that late 2026 and especially 2027 could set new global temperature records.

The impacts of such an event would not be limited to rising temperatures. El Niño alters atmospheric circulation and triggers extreme weather events around the world. Some regions experience heavy rainfall and flooding, while others face prolonged droughts. For Türkiye, the picture is complex. El Niño years can influence precipitation patterns in the Eastern Mediterranean, but this effect can no longer be considered in isolation. When combined with the long-term drying trend, the pressure on water resources is likely to increase.

Agriculture is similarly vulnerable. The global effects of El Niño lead to fluctuations in production, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. These fluctuations affect global food prices, creating pressure on both producer and importer countries. Countries like Türkiye, which occupy both roles, may be particularly exposed to these disruptions.

Another major impact emerges in ocean ecosystems. During El Niño, the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters along the South American coast is suppressed. This leads to declines in fish stocks and disruptions in marine ecosystems. These effects are not merely local—they ripple through global fisheries and food systems.

All of this makes it clear that El Niño can no longer be treated as an isolated climate phenomenon. Today, it acts as a multiplier within an already stressed climate system. Yet uncertainty is often misinterpreted. The fact that we cannot yet say with certainty that a “Super” El Niño will develop does not mean the risk is low. On the contrary, in a rapidly changing climate system, uncertainty often points to the possibility of stronger-than-expected outcomes.

For this reason, the real question is not “Will El Niño occur?” but “What will we do when it does?” Because without preparation, the impacts of such events do not grow linearly—they escalate.

Water management, agricultural planning, and preparing cities for extreme heat are all necessary steps regardless of El Niño. However, a strong El Niño could make these needs far more urgent.

Looking ahead, the likelihood of an El Niño event is high, and the possibility that it will be strong cannot be ignored. Whether it will reach “Super” intensity remains uncertain, but it is clearly on the table. More importantly, its impacts could be more severe than those of past events. Because this is no longer just about El Niño itself.

The real issue is that El Niño is now occurring in a much hotter world.

And that fundamentally changes the rules of the game.