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Are We Ready for COP31?

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“COP31 will take place in Antalya in November 2026.” Many people in Türkiye know this sentence today. However, almost no one reflects on what this actually means, what it could change, or what kind of opportunity it represents. For most people, COP31 is simply seen as a large international meeting that will take place in Antalya between November 9 and 21. It is perceived as a two-week event with some temporary intensity and visibility, after which everything will return to normal. For much of the business world, the issue is framed even more narrowly: will there be hotel rooms available in Antalya during those dates? This perspective shows that we are completely missing the bigger picture. Because COP31 is not an event—it is a process. What truly matters is not the two-week meeting itself, but the multi-year period leading up to it and continuing afterward. Since Antalya was announced as the host, climate change has already moved to the top of the agenda in Türkiye. This momentum will ...
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Next Super El Niño

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When the possibility of a Super El Niño is discussed, most debates actually start from the wrong place. The issue is not simply whether a strong El Niño will occur. The real issue is the conditions under which this event will now take place. Because the climate system we are in today is no longer the same system in which past El Niño events occurred. The most important recent development in the Pacific Ocean is the significant accumulation of heat in the upper few hundred meters below the surface. Such heat buildup is usually a precursor to El Niño. Under normal conditions, warm water that accumulates in the western Pacific moves eastward when the wind patterns allow it, and when it reaches the coasts of South America, it interacts with the atmosphere and raises global temperatures. What we are observing today suggests that this process has already begun. However, the critical question is this: will this be a typical El Niño, or will it develop into a much stronger event—a so-called “S...
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It is raining but the reservoirs are not filling

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In recent weeks, we have been hearing the same sentence almost every day: “Rainfall has increased in Türkiye, but reservoirs are not filling.” The claim is often taken one step further and turned into the conclusion that “water must be poorly managed.” Although this interpretation may sound reasonable at first glance, it is actually a classic hydrological misunderstanding rooted in a misinterpretation of how natural systems work. Let us begin with the data. According to official figures from the State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), on December 15, 2024, Türkiye’s reservoirs held 39.2 billion cubic meters of active storage, corresponding to a filling rate of 41.6%. Following a severe drought, by December 15, 2025, stored water had dropped to 31.9 billion cubic meters, and the filling rate declined to 33.8%. In other words, the country entered the rainy season with a significant water deficit. Then the rains arrived. During the 2026 water year (October 1, 2025 – February 17, 2026), cumulative pr...
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Winter Olympics and Climate Change

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As the 2026 Winter Olympic Games begin in Milano–Cortina, it is time to lift our eyes from the medal competitions and look instead at the logistical and ecological wreckage behind the slopes. Back in 2014, the climate modeling work our team at iklimBU conducted during the Lillehammer 2022 candidacy process had already placed these cold realities—now largely ignored by the sports world—squarely on the table. The Winter Olympics increasingly resemble not a celebration of sport, but a logistical war against nature fought with technology — and one that is already lost in advance. Over the past half-century, the clear shortening of winter across the Northern Hemisphere and the melting of snowpacks in mountainous regions have steadily narrowed the geographical boundaries within which the Games can be organized, trapping us in a dangerous form of technological optimism. Artificial snow, embraced by Olympic committees and broadcasters to preserve the illusion of a white winter landscape, is i...
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The Origin of Hydrocarbon Resources: Abiotic Theory and Geological Reality

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Discussions regarding the formation of energy resources and the sustainability of reserves have recently drifted toward a trajectory that contradicts the fundamental principles of geological science. Arguments built upon the "abiotic oil" theory tend to interpret the global energy crisis and resource scarcity solely as market manipulation. However, this approach disregards the thermodynamic and biochemical laws governing petroleum formation. Contrary to popular belief, petroleum is not the product of macro-fauna (e.g., dinosaurs), but rather the result of microorganisms and plant matter deposited over millions of years. This organic matter, predominantly consisting of photosynthetic plankton, undergoes a chemical transformation under specific temperature and pressure conditions (the oil window) in anoxic (oxygen-free) environments. This process creates the complex hydrocarbon chains we utilize today. The abiotic theory argues that petroleum is continuously produced through in...
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The Hubris of Taming the Skies: The Chasm Between Cloud Seeding and Reality

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Human history is a saga of oscillation between the desire to dominate nature and the devastation wrought by that very ambition. Nowadays, whenever an extreme weather event occurs—be it a region submerged by floods or withered by drought—eyes immediately turn to the skies. Yet, this time, the gaze is not fixed on the natural form of the clouds, but on what humans "did" to them. Cloud seeding has ceased to be a mere scientific method; it has become a symbol of our collective fears and that perilous hubris: the delusion that "we control everything." Let us establish the scientific reality in its simplest terms: Cloud seeding is not a miracle that creates something out of nothing in the sky. If you do not have a cloud mass with the appropriate humidity, temperature, and microphysical conditions, no amount of silver iodide or dry ice will produce even a single drop of rain. This method is merely a microscopic nudge—an attempt to increase the precipitation efficiency of a...
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Is Carbon Capture and Storage Really a Solution to the Climate Crisis?

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Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies have long been presented to the public as a “technological salvation” at a time when the climate crisis is deepening. Oil, natural gas, and coal companies argue that the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere can be captured and safely stored underground, allowing the continued use of fossil fuels. This narrative creates a sense of comfort—particularly among economists—that enables the postponement of emissions-reduction policies. However, recent scientific studies show that carbon storage is neither as effective nor as viable, technically or economically, as it is often portrayed. A recent analysis published by CarbonBrief reveals that long-accepted estimates of global geological carbon storage capacity have been wildly optimistic. Claims that 10,000–40,000 billion tonnes of CO₂ could be stored underground collapse when realistic safety and feasibility criteria are applied. According to the study, the amount of carbon dioxide that can ...
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