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The Dangerous Optimism of Climate Scenarios: The Reality Lost Between RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6

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In April 2026, the IPCC formally declared that RCP 8.5, one of the most debated scenarios in climate science, is no longer realistic. According to the report, the rapid growth of renewable energy and the partial transformation brought about by climate policies have made the highest-emissions pathway increasingly unlikely. For many observers, the announcement was reassuring news. Yet there is reason to be cautious about that sense of relief. The same report also quietly acknowledged that RCP 2.6—the pathway designed to keep global warming below 2°C—may no longer be realistic either. Taken together, these two statements reveal a profound contradiction at the heart of climate science today. The retirement of RCP 8.5 is partly welcome news. Coal consumption is unlikely to rise to the levels assumed by that scenario, and renewable energy has expanded much faster than many expected. However, it is important to distinguish between emissions pathways and temperature outcomes. The fact that RCP...
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Stopping Climate Change: Technological Optimism or Political Realism?

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News from Germany last week once again laid bare the deadlock in climate policy. Germany's Expert Council on Climate Change officially declared that the federal government will be unable to meet its 2030 and 2040 climate targets under current policies. Legally binding commitments sit on paper while the energy, transport, and buildings sectors fall persistently short. According to the independent council, an overshoot of between 60 and 100 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent is expected within the country's carbon budget. For many, the news came as no surprise. Germany has long positioned itself as a climate leader. Yet the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition formed after the 2025 elections has made economic recovery its priority and is seeking to roll back its predecessor's climate agenda. Voters were decisive in shaping that choice: high energy prices, industrial decline, and the perceived cost of the "green transition" translated into real electoral consequences. The German case...
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Are We Ready for COP31?

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“COP31 will take place in Antalya in November 2026.” Many people in Türkiye know this sentence today. However, almost no one reflects on what this actually means, what it could change, or what kind of opportunity it represents. For most people, COP31 is simply seen as a large international meeting that will take place in Antalya between November 9 and 21. It is perceived as a two-week event with some temporary intensity and visibility, after which everything will return to normal. For much of the business world, the issue is framed even more narrowly: will there be hotel rooms available in Antalya during those dates? This perspective shows that we are completely missing the bigger picture. Because COP31 is not an event—it is a process. What truly matters is not the two-week meeting itself, but the multi-year period leading up to it and continuing afterward. Since Antalya was announced as the host, climate change has already moved to the top of the agenda in Türkiye. This momentum will ...
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Next Super El Niño

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When the possibility of a Super El Niño is discussed, most debates actually start from the wrong place. The issue is not simply whether a strong El Niño will occur. The real issue is the conditions under which this event will now take place. Because the climate system we are in today is no longer the same system in which past El Niño events occurred. The most important recent development in the Pacific Ocean is the significant accumulation of heat in the upper few hundred meters below the surface. Such heat buildup is usually a precursor to El Niño. Under normal conditions, warm water that accumulates in the western Pacific moves eastward when the wind patterns allow it, and when it reaches the coasts of South America, it interacts with the atmosphere and raises global temperatures. What we are observing today suggests that this process has already begun. However, the critical question is this: will this be a typical El Niño, or will it develop into a much stronger event—a so-called “S...
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The Climate Stability in the Holocene Might Be Coming To An End

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In Türkiye, many people still wrongly see climate change as just "rising temperatures." However, the real issue isn't a few degrees of warming. It is the shift in how the entire climate system behaves. If global feedback loops strengthen and the system speeds up, the Mediterranean basin will be hit first and hardest.  Türkiye  sits right in the middle of this sensitive zone. Türkiye ’s agriculture and water security have always relied on climate stability. In Anatolia, production patterns and rainfall were once predictable. Recent trends show these limits are now being pushed. Hotter summers, long droughts, and sudden heavy rains are no longer exceptions. They are becoming the new normal. If the global system hits certain thresholds,  Türkiye  faces two major problems. These are unstable water cycles and irregular farming. Water security is not just about total rainfall. The timing and location of rain matter most. While rain increases in the Black Sea region, drough...
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It is raining but the reservoirs are not filling

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In recent weeks, we have been hearing the same sentence almost every day: “Rainfall has increased in Türkiye, but reservoirs are not filling.” The claim is often taken one step further and turned into the conclusion that “water must be poorly managed.” Although this interpretation may sound reasonable at first glance, it is actually a classic hydrological misunderstanding rooted in a misinterpretation of how natural systems work. Let us begin with the data. According to official figures from the State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), on December 15, 2024, Türkiye’s reservoirs held 39.2 billion cubic meters of active storage, corresponding to a filling rate of 41.6%. Following a severe drought, by December 15, 2025, stored water had dropped to 31.9 billion cubic meters, and the filling rate declined to 33.8%. In other words, the country entered the rainy season with a significant water deficit. Then the rains arrived. During the 2026 water year (October 1, 2025 – February 17, 2026), cumulative pr...
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Winter Olympics and Climate Change

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As the 2026 Winter Olympic Games begin in Milano–Cortina, it is time to lift our eyes from the medal competitions and look instead at the logistical and ecological wreckage behind the slopes. Back in 2014, the climate modeling work our team at iklimBU conducted during the Lillehammer 2022 candidacy process had already placed these cold realities—now largely ignored by the sports world—squarely on the table. The Winter Olympics increasingly resemble not a celebration of sport, but a logistical war against nature fought with technology — and one that is already lost in advance. Over the past half-century, the clear shortening of winter across the Northern Hemisphere and the melting of snowpacks in mountainous regions have steadily narrowed the geographical boundaries within which the Games can be organized, trapping us in a dangerous form of technological optimism. Artificial snow, embraced by Olympic committees and broadcasters to preserve the illusion of a white winter landscape, is i...
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