Next Super El Niño
When the possibility of a Super El Niño is discussed, most debates actually start from the wrong place. The issue is not simply whether a strong El Niño will occur. The real issue is the conditions under which this event will now take place. Because the climate system we are in today is no longer the same system in which past El Niño events occurred. The most important recent development in the Pacific Ocean is the significant accumulation of heat in the upper few hundred meters below the surface. Such heat buildup is usually a precursor to El Niño. Under normal conditions, warm water that accumulates in the western Pacific moves eastward when the wind patterns allow it, and when it reaches the coasts of South America, it interacts with the atmosphere and raises global temperatures. What we are observing today suggests that this process has already begun. However, the critical question is this: will this be a typical El Niño, or will it develop into a much stronger event—a so-called “S...